China's Petroleum Coke Imports to Decline Significantly in 2024, Market Demand Gradually Recovers and Expected to Rise in 2025 [SMM Analysis]

SMM, January 24:

According to customs data, China imported 982,900 mt of petroleum coke in December 2024, down 7.32% MoM and 28.45% YoY. The estimated import price of petroleum coke in December was $136.84/mt, down 11.57% MoM and 21.67% YoY. In 2024, China's total petroleum coke imports amounted to approximately 13.3988 million mt, down 16.35% YoY.

By import type, in 2024, the ratio of sulfur content <3% to other uncalcined petroleum coke was approximately 3:7. The import volume of "uncalcined petroleum coke with sulfur content <3%" reached 3.8658 million mt, down 6.23% YoY, while the import volume of "other uncalcined petroleum coke" reached 9.533 million mt, down 19.86% YoY.

By import country, in 2024, China's main sources of petroleum coke imports were the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, with import volumes (import shares) of 3.8614 million mt (29%), 2.4719 million mt (18%), and 1.5548 million mt (12%), respectively.

In 2024, the overall import volume of petroleum coke significantly declined, especially in Q1, when weak downstream demand led to a YoY decrease of 32.49%. However, in Q2, domestic refineries entered the maintenance season, reducing resource supply. Coupled with the recovery of the downstream anode material market and the rigid demand for carbon used in aluminum production, domestic market demand increased significantly, leading to a rebound in petroleum coke imports. By year-end 2024, petroleum coke inventories at domestic ports continued to decline, particularly in Q4, when a rapid destocking phase occurred. This inventory reduction reflects a recovery in market demand for petroleum coke. Looking ahead to 2025, downstream orders from anode material enterprises are performing well, and companies are actively procuring petroleum coke. Additionally, the rigid demand in the carbon market and frequent shutdowns for maintenance at domestic refineries, which result in tight supply, are expected to drive an upward trend in petroleum coke imports.